The market wants Lula to win in the first round just to get this over with.

All of this is Monday morning quarterbacking. If you or I were in there we'd probably have done a much worse job. His great legacy was his pragmatism. He was cautious.

Because the economy is so strong, import growth is also very strong, and that import growth is eroding trade surpluses. Surpluses of more than a billion a month might be over.

In Mexico, there is too much risk priced in.

Even if he doesn't win, he could be a radical voice for the left.

To Mexico's credit, they don't allow the oil windfall to get in the hands of the Treasury too much so they haven't really grown dependent on it.

Last week we had stability in US Treasuries and that has helped emerging market spreads tighten. As long as that stability continues you will see at the very least similar stability in emerging market spreads.

It is a perfect time for populism. It will be more and more difficult for Brazil to resist.

On the flip side, there should be more concern in Brazil.

New concerns about inflation, especially of oil prices, raises questions about the outlook for inflation in developed economies (that) could certainly upset that equation and drive emerging market spreads higher again.